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Mad Money

News/Business. (2012)

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Romney 15, Florida 11, Nbc News 11, Us 10, Virginia 9, California 7, Ohio 7, Barack Obama 7, United States 7, Nevada 6, North Carolina 5, America 5, John Harwood 5, U.s. 5, John 4, Chicago 4, Colorado 4, Boston 4, Iowa 4, Carl 4,
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  CNBC    Mad Money    News/Business.  (2012)  

    November 6, 2012
    11:00 - 12:00am EST  

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closes. >> as the results are posted on the jumbo tron at 30 apparentlye crude do a little hooting and hollering depending on whether or not the races go the way they want. it's 11:00 on the east coast. we do some results. >> we sure do. the first is california. we can tell you nbc news is projecting california to go to president obama. 55 electoral votes in california. this is obviously a huge one. no surprise that the president wins california. also, right now, we can tell you that hawaii is also going to obama. nbc news projecting the president to win hawaii as well, another four electoral votes. listen to the crowds, carl. >> yep. >> another winning -- another winner on a close call in idaho. idaho is going to governor romney. governor romney wins idaho with
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four electoral votes. nbc news projecting mitt romney the winner there. >> couple of big states out of the pacific northwest as we continue to hear the crowds at democracy plaza. the state of oregon, too early to call. although nbc news is saying that the president, barack obama, does lead in the state of oregon. and washington state. nbc news projects that barack obama will take the state of washington. there are some cheers in democracy plaza. we'll go back to there as the map fills in as the night goes on. >> not really clear who the fan base is for because you're hearing the same kind of, you know, phrase for both obama and romney. >> puts the president at 243 which is less than 30 points needed to get to 270. things are getting important here. in the meantime, your headlines at this hour. nbc news projecting obama ahead in electoral votes after sweeping up california as we mentioned. wisconsin, new hampshire. the first of the battleground state also fall to obama. however, we're still waiting on
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the other key swing states, iowa and nevada remain too early to call. north carolina, ohio, virginia, florida, colorado, too close to call. the senate, mostly breaking as expe expected, but the democrats did pick up three new seats. republicans projected to hold the house as well. >> all right. let's get straight to john harwood at the maproom to give us more color on what we're seeing as the most recent poll closings. over to you, john. >> we're almost completely closing the map of coloring in the map of all the states we knew in advance where they were going to faull. the only state where polls have not closed yet is the state of alaska. we're very confident mitt romney is going to win that based on polls before the election. so we're really waiting for those seven battleground states that haven't been filled in yet. again, to reiterate, as we've talked about before, if president obama wins the state of florida this race is over. he's going to be re-elected for a second term. but if mitt romney wins it, he's got to also win north carolina, he's got to win virginia, where
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it's very close, and he's got to win the state of ohio, which is really a big one hanging out there. president obama is hoping to check mate mitt romney by winning the state of nevada, where he had been favored going into election day, and the state of ohio where he'd held a persistent lead in the polls. obama campaign officials tell me they have a lead in the state and they -- we can see from the raw vote they have a lead in the state. they believe the outstanding vote is from urban areas that will favor them. but we haven't gotten a call from our decision desk, so we're going to have to wait to see when that one comes in. >> john, any guesses as to which state that has not been called gets called first? >> i would think that nevada would be called, given the robustness of the president's lead heading in and the persistence of his lead heading into that state. i would expect, ohio, a swing state unlike most others was not quite as close. president obama had a pretty clear lead heading into election day and we're going to have to see if that holds up. there's an issue with
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provisional ballots in the state. voters who requested absentee ballots but then showed up to vote on election day. in that circumstance, your vote is provisional, set to the side, isn't counted until later. scott was talking about that earlier. that is one thing that potentially could hold up the returns though the obama campaign is confident it's not going to. >> john, we'll come back to you. john harwood in the maproom. i want to get the view from the world's biggest investor, jim rogers, charirman of rogers holding. good to see you. >> delighted to be here. wow. >> where are you tonight, by the way? >> i'm in singapore. it's noon here. we're having lunch. >> we're getting some word that nbc news projecting the state of north carolina for mitt romney. a state we also knew was relatively close. 15 electoral votes. >> this is an important one, carl. now we see, it was too close to call just a few minutes ago. 15 electoral votes going to mitt romney here. jim rogers, as an investors, what you're seeing tonight, how do you want to allocate money
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if, in fact, president obama is re-elected and the same question under governor romney? >> well, you saw what happened yesterday in the market, maria. the market seems to think that obama's going to win. commodities went through the roof. the dollar went down. bonds went down. because if obama wins, it's going to be more inflation, more money printing, more debt, more spending. it's not going to be good for you, me, and anybody else. it might be good for mr. obama's friends, but it's not good for the world. >> jimmy, if mitt romney wins, do you change your mind? different view, different scenario? >> hello, larry. i didn't know you were there. >> hi, buddy. how are you? >> i'm fine. i'm fine. well, of the two, you know, i guess romney's the lesser of two evils, but larry, they're both evil as far as i'm concerned. i didn't vote for either one of them. i don't want to waste my vote on the lesser of two evils.
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yes, mr. romney says better things to you and to many other people, but it's not going to make that much difference. >> well, i guess, jim, i mean, what about, once we know who the leader is, then the work begins. what about foreign policy? what about trade? you're sitting in singapore watching the world from your vantage point and traveling so much. which candidate is better on trade? which candidate in your view is better on foreign policy? >> maria, i wish i could tell you one is better than the oath but you see what they both to. they both bash the chinese. they both bash the asians. mr. romney bashes the russians. i mean, the poor russians sitting here trying to be our friends and all of a sudden mr. romney says they're our worst enemies. i mean, these guys don't seem to understand what's going on in the outside world. yes, you're exactly right. i'm sitting here in asia and see the reaction of asians to some of these things. maria, there are 3 billion asians. billion with a "b." i'm afraid neither one of them gets it. it scares me sometimes. >> last time we spoke you said
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you were investing in russia. you still are? >> i'm looking for investments in russia. i don't have anything there yet. it's not that easy for me to find things in russia. partly because i'm a little lazedy these days. i don't work as hard as i used to. >> oh. okay. >> all right. so -- >> maybe -- >> let's put politics aside. what are you doing? tell me about your portfolio. let's get right down to it. what do you like, what are you long, what are you short? >> i'm, today, tomorrow -- today here, tomorrow there -- i'm going to short more bonds, more u.s. government bonds. i'm going to buy more commodities, buy metals, base metals and precious metals. looks to me like the money printing is going to run amok now. and the spending is going to run amok now. again, larry, i'm not saying this is good for the world, it's not good for anybody. this is what's going to go on. i have to invest based on what's happening, not on what i would like. >> mr. rodgers, rick santelli
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here. what about europe? i don't disagree with your notion you want to sell treasuries. i do disagree treasuries were moving to the downside because of a barack win. most of the traders in chicago were definitely thinking mitt was going to win. they were buying puts on the treasuries. they were buying calls on the s&ps. my question to you is pure and simple. the world is lending us money at rates much too cheap. i wouldn't lend uncle sam my money for ten years for 170 basis points but the european issue continues to push more investors into treasuries. when do you think that will end? >> well, i own the u.s. dollar, partly from what you're talking about. my play, rightly or wrongly, is i'm long the dollar and short treasuries because i don't see that anybody's going to continue to lend money to the u.s. i'm long the 30-year, or the 20-year as it happens. rather than the short ones like you. it's going to end. now that the world knows that america's going to do the same thing for four more years --
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>> jimmy, before -- the chapter's not written tonight by any stretch. in fact, this north carolina race we're looking at makes things a little bit tighter than they were maybe 10 or 20 minutes ago. john harwood, you have some thoughts on that? >> i just wanted to say north carolina is the first piece of genuine good news for mitt romney from the swing states tonight. he needed that state. he'd been favored heading into the night. when it looked like the state was wavering and obama might be doing better than expected, that was a very bad sign for romney. he's now brought that home. now he's got to do the same thing in the state of florida. do the same thing in the state of virginia. and the same thing in the state of ohio. but this is something to cheer, the people in boston at romney headquarters. >> john, i know you're looking to the screen as well. iowa being projected now for barack obama. >> well, that is a piece of bad news for the romney campaign. again, remember, mitt romney needed to win most of the nine swing states. not just a couple of them. most of them.
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he's still got to do that. he's not out of the game, but if you take the state of iowa, you got colorado out there, if president obama can hold nevada and the state of colorado, it doesn't matter what happens in any of these other states. he'll be over the finish line. so big challenges, more for president obama, fewer more romney, but he's still in the game. >> waiting on too close to call races which of course have been really critical. ohio being number one. florida, as well. we know now north carolina and, of course, iowa. >> larry, he needs 21 votes. >> yeah. there's a pattern. i mean, let's face it. there's a pattern here. and whether you're romney supporter or not, you got to look at this thing. the pattern spills over into the u.s. senate also. and the only place that was immune was the house of representatives. republicans kept the house. but i think nationally there's a pattern. i mean, i think mr. romney will do well if he can hold some of
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these florida, virginias. i'm not sure he can to be honest with you. >> i just think about if the -- let's say we end up where we were, the same split in the house and the democrats get the -- is the republican party going to be satisfied being there? >> that's the big question. >> does it mean a big change? i saw some republican pundits say this should be the end of the gop punditry class because of all the money that was spent, really would have gone for naught if romney does not win the presidency here. then i guess are the democrats going to be happy? let's say they do win this thing in a squeaker of an electoral vote, of a popular vote, not having that last seat, and capable of doing an agenda, would they then move to the center? >> we were talking about this earlier. >> it was a good discussion then. >> in effect, nothing's changed politically. >> right. >> except we just had an election. and in effect i'm going to give it to obama right now. i don't mean to, but let's just hypothesize. you still have re-elected president obama by a goodly
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amount it looks like. okay? that's a possibility. you have a three pickups in the senate if i'm not mistaken for the democrats. has not supposed to have happened. now, the house republicans will pick up a few. here's my point. will they sit down, clean slate? >> good question. >> or -- >> before you go on, larry -- >> we have to get this news out. >> oregon being called for barack obama. it was already called with obama leading, too early to call. it is now according to nbc news a state that will fall to barack obama. given that, takes the president to 256. we are hearing that nbc news is projecting the state of ohio will go to barack obama. >> that's it. >> that's it. >> it's over. >> that will put him over 270. >> yep. >> so -- okay. >> that's some drama. >> nbc news is projecting barack obama will win re-election. nbc news projecting president obama wins re-election.
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now that we know ohio has gone to obama. barack obama, president of the united states. i want to go to phil lebeau in mccormick park at headquarters. over to you, maria, you can hear the crowd. just pointed up there, projected to be the next president of the united states. there's a huge cheer here. there are about 10,000 president obama supporters packed into the mccormick place, filling up, cheering as other states were announced. you can see over my shoulder they were putting different returns up from different states. now they're determining president obama is going to be win re-election. we had a clue the president must have been pretty confident this was going to happen. about ten minutes ago there was a live picture from a local affiliate here in town showing the president's motorcade going from the fairmont hotel to here at the mccormick place.
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so he wouldn't have been coming here if he wasn't confident at this stage that he was going to win re-election. so now the question is when do we hear from him? guys? >> all right, phil, thanks very much. phil lebeau on top of all of the roar in chicago at the barack obama election headquarters. nbc news projecting barack obama winning re-election on the heels of the latest poll closing in ohio. ohio going to the president. making him the winner for re-election according to nbc news. >> i come back to my analysis, maria, which is that i think that the republican party did not listen to rick santelli. he said in the earliest about this election needs to be about jobs, jobs and jobs and i don't believe -- >> let me get back to -- >> i know my friend -- >> let me get back to jim rodgers for a second. jim rodgers, we know now that president obama has won
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re-election. as an investor, do you want to put money in the united states today or tomorrow knowing what we know, that we will have the next four years, a similar situation, same situation, the republicans control the house, the democrats control the senate, president obama in the white house. >> i will buy more metals tomorrow, as i said. >> metals. >> will i buy shares? >> no. >> you're not going to buy stocks but gold and metals. >> didn't you miss the 60% rally if you bet against obama over the last four years? >> can you guys hear me better now? >> what does the last four years got to do with tomorrow? i'm just saying what i'm going to do now. >> against obama in the stock market the last four years you would have missed a pretty decent rally. >> no, no, i was not -- i only covered my shorts in 2010. no, no, no, i haven't been against -- not for four years. >> it's been said, larry, that
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whoever won tonight was going to benefit from economic trends that were already in place. so are you saying you believe tonight that the next year or two is not going to be better no matter what wins? >> i don't know that. you see, the problem with this story is not that romney didn't campaign on jobs, romney had a lengthy proposals, okay? maybe too lengthy. whatever. the problem is, president obama didn't campaign on anything, he had no future agenda. he never talked about the fiscal cliff. all he knows is he wants to raise tax rates on upper income people. he has no entitlement plan. in other words, obama is to a large extent a clean slate. we don't know what he wants but we know he wants the top income tax and capital gains taxes to go up. the question is, can he sit down with the house speaker, john boehner, here we go again, and try to hammer out some kind of deal? that's the big question. i don't know the answer to that. >> agree to a tax increase.
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>> do it tomorrow when he didn't do it for the last 3 1/2 -- >> everybody yelled -- they came out with this 20 page little paper booklet at the very end of the campaign because it had nice pictures, a lot of good color because everybody said you don't have a future agenda. and they were right. then the hurricane struck and that stomped out everything else. >> let me get your take on this. clearly tonight has been unbelievably tight all night. and here we know with 274 electoral votes for the president versus 203 for romney, is this a mandate to lead for the next four years? i mean, it clearly was not a landslide. so does the president make a right, go to the middle, knowing that things were so tight? john harwood, joining us at the desk here. >> look, it's not going to be tight, i don't believe, electorally, when you get all the states that come in. it is very tight in the popular vote. i think what the president is going to do is resume the negotiations on a grand bargain
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he attempted to strike with john boehner in 2011. they came very close but they couldn't get there. the reason they couldn't get there was because the republican party was not prepared to go along on tax increases. president obama put some entitlement cuts on the table. both sides, that's the give for both sides. democrats have to go along with entitlement cuts. republicans have to go along with tax increases. if that happens, there will be a deal. >> there's different tax rates and tax revenues. there's a difference between tax reform and tax hikes. they had a deal until president obama put a $400 billion tax hike on the table at the last minute. now, i agree with you, tonight is not going to be that close z. i think at the end of the day the national trend is the national trend. but i don't know what is in mr. obama's playbook. i just don't know. because he -- after 2010 -- hang on -- let me make this point. after 2010, everybody expected him to go clinton. >> he didn't do.
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>> he didn't go clinton. >> i agree with that. >> so right now after 2012 -- >> that's not really true. >> -- i don't know where he's going to go. >> he borrowed clinton for a while. >> obama's policies are quite similar to clinton's, and what happened to bill clinton was he got hammered in the 1994 elections. the economy started to improve then his path to -- he defe fde the republic chance in a budget standoff over the same issues of medicare and medicaid that president obama has been trying to use against republicans then they had the economy kind of solve the deficit problem for them. you had a deal that didn't go all that far, wasn't all that difficult. but bill clinton raised taxes just like president obama did. >> bill clinton also cut taxes, and bill clinton was a different man after 1994. he was a different man and i want to know whether he'll do this again. >> i want to go to democracy plaza in new york city because brian sullivan is there. he's going to tell us also the results in the senate. over to you, brian. >> yeah, thank you very much, maria.
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listen, i mean, right now there's certainly going to be talk tomorrow for everything you're hitting on. the unemployment rate is still too high. will we get a deal on the fiscal cliff? i can bring you color from here. not the blue and red on the map, i'm talking about the crowd. when those results you announced at the top of 11:00 came out, an audible cheer, chants of "four more years," people hugging over here, cars honking over here. i can't speak for the rest of the country, maybe with the exception of chicago. there's a lot of jubilation right here in democracy plaza. you can tell this yehere arounds a very pro-obama crowd. i think you bring up a great point. when we wake up tomorrow morning, we're still in for a mess of fiscal cliff trouble and we're still pretty much back to where we were and i want to put it back to you guys in the studio. when we look back on this election, how much will that drop below 8% unemployment a few months ago will have influenced this election? right?
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that has got to be seen as a big move, but we can all agree that 7.9% probably is still too high. we'll see what everybody's got in the cards tomorrow. for now, it's jubilation here in new york. i can tell you that much. >> it's interesting to see all of the roars and the celebration. and i understand that when your candidate wins, you know, you are happy and excited. that's what we're seeing take place in democracy plaza and certainly at president obama's headquarters. but now, as i've been saying and we've been talking about, the work begins. so how do we get actually a dent in the debt and in the deficit at this point? >> we'll talk about what the first phone call is tonight, john, and tomorrow morning, from the president, in a moment. but i think we are going to go back to phil lebeau who is at mccormick place in chicago, if in fact he can hear me. phil? >> reporter: i can hear you, carl, i can hear you, maria. hopefully you can hear me. it is a loud and boisterous crowd here. this is a different atmosphere than it was in 2008. we've been talking about this
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all day long. this is the first time tonight you can sense almost a sense of relief. there was a little bit of nervousness, clearly, amongst a number of people here. in fact, there has been a longtime obama supporter, member of his team, who was here and one of our producers was talking with him and he said, i'm a little nervous tonight. and i don't like the feeling of being nervous. that gives you some sense of the difference in the atmosphere now compared back to 2008. one other thing. we said earlier that the president's motorcade had left the fairmont hotel and was heading over here to mccormick place. we're told now is it was leaving his house in hyde park on the south side of chicago headed over to the fairmont hotel where the obama team is at. we presume it will be there, he'll be there for a little while, president obama, and then he'll come over here to mccormick place. still no projection in terms of when he might talk to his supporters here. but the folks here, number of them are hugging and dancing and for a lot of them they can finally say, it's done. it's over. but clearly they were nervous going into tonight. guys? >> it's done.
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it's over. but will the president be able to bring the two sides together and compromise on the important issues that matter to the american people? and actually lead on this going forward for the -- or do we just get gridlocked that nobody is willing to change their opinion? >> i wonder to the extent, that now that obama has won re-election and republicans remain confined to owning only the house if this is a wake-up call to the republican party that they're going to need to meet the president closer to halfway than, perhaps, they've been willing to to this point. >> could be. >> if they want to have more national power. >> you're not going to have -- >> otherwise stay in the house and play. >> stay in the house. they picked up house seats. >> they lost senate seats, larry, and lost extremist senate seats. >> i don't want to argue about that. the issue is, whenever, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, we have to see what -- the president holds the cards now. >> that's a good point. president has the stronger hands. republicans have the weaker
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hand. we begin the same negotiations. >> let's not forget -- >> that's exactly where i'm going. i want to see -- he, look, he has the hand. he won tonight. he won pretty convincingly. let's see what he does. >> what do you think about the popular vote? romney and ryan are still winning the popular vote. >> i thought the west coast would tighten it up. it hasn't. >> i don't expect that to be the case by the time all the votes are counted, but look, we've seen before, you can have an electoral vote winner and a popular vote loser. it's happened a couple times in our history. it would not be -- it would not be shocking if it happened tonight, but i don't expect it -- >> john, it's going to matter, i think, for the flavor of the country, of the post-election period of the second obama presidency if he takes florida and/or virginia. if obama loses that entire southern portion, i actually think it affects his governance. >> it was a divisive campaign. it was a divisive presidency and he won. so all you can say now is, what
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happens next? i, frankly, think it's a gigantic question mark. i have no idea. >> well, you're talking about the democrats. what about, is there a systemic problem with the gop machinery in this country? does there need to be a rethink? >> they took the people's house. they carried it pretty well. democrats lost. you're going to see a change of leadership for democrats in the house. that's very important. republicans stumbled in the senate. no two ways about that. i can't predict. i don't know. >> there is a problem with the republican party which is that there are more conservatives than liberals in the country, first of all, okay? that means the beating heart of the republican party ideologically is stronger than that of the democratic party. it's easier for democrats to move because liberals are less power. conservatives dominate the republican party and done so in a way that is hurting their electoral prospects. right? so they've got to have a reckoning about where they go on issues related to the economy, where they go on issues related to women and social change in
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this country and also on issues related to latinos because they got hammered, again, with latino votes. >> it was explained to me in the summertime, a pollster explained to me in the summertime that the election was over when obama made his ruling on immigration. and that was the one that brought the latinos over. the executive order on immigration. >> "the des moines register," right -- >> let's bring jim rodgers back into the conversation. as we were in the middle of our conversation with you, we learned barack obama has won re-election. your thoughts on this. >> well, maria, i'm sitting here listening to everybody talk about politics instead of what we're going to do and what's going to happen to the country. i tiell you, this is not good fr the country. it's more of the same old stuff. more money printing. more debt. we're not going to love this. if they raise taxes which everybody seems to think they will, raising taxes has never been good for the economy. so we should be worried about 2013, 2014. i can see a lot of happy people tonight. call them up in 2013. call them up in 2014.
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>> yep. >> there's one difference, maria, at this point, from this point forward, obama owns this economy. he was able not to own it in this election. i felt if he owned it, he wasn't going to win the presidency again. he owns this point from now on. >> jim, when you say -- >> second term, does it matter that he owns this economy? i mean, he's done after four years. >> i think it matters more. >> does he have an economic agenda or a liberal social agenda? i don't know where this is going. >> yes, yes. >> you talk about the republicans shifting. he's, most democrats regard president obama as a guy with a very, very liberal social agenda. so i think there's a lot of possibilities for change here. i have no idea how this is going to play out. >> let's get to hampton pearson who's been manning -- our voice at the romney headquarters in boston. hampton, what's the response to this projection that obama is the next, is once again president of the united states? >> reporter: the response in the room here at romney headquarters
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in boston is they are hearing word from the romney camp, the romney camp is not conceding ohio to barack obama. so they are clinging to the hope, contrary to all the projections and the calls by the other major networks, they're holding out saying if ohio is not in obama's column, barack obama has not yet been re-elected president of the united states. i have to tell you, though, that just happened within the last minute or so. but when all the projections came in and when the calls initially came in about 10 or 15 minutes ago, this room was stunned. that, number one, that it seemed that president obama closed so quickly in getting over the 270 electoral votes, but in the last minute or two, the buzz here in the room and words from senior campaign advisers including karl
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rove, that the romney campaign is not yet conceding ohio. that's what the hope is being hung on to here at romney headquarters here in boston. >> can they contest this? >> absolutely. and this -- i think this is big news what hampton pearson is reporting. i'm looking on the twittersphere. i'm not seeing that anywhere else. hampton is breaking that story. maybe it is some place else. >> is this boilerplate, john, or bigger? >> they're not contesting it because the votes haven't been cast in ohio. we have a projection by the nbc unit. they only project when they have a very high confidence, but until the votes are counted the romney campaign can say whatever they want. >> rick, you've been the voice to such a large degree of a vocal element of this electorate over the last few years. what is your response tonight? do you feel, is there a repudiation of the things you've been breaching for the last three, four years? >> has the house changed much?
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>> no. >> okay. my guess is the fiscal conservatives in the house are going to be as fiscally conservative tomorrow as they were last week. i don't see why they shouldn't be. they were sent there by people. they were voted in and that is a voice of conservatism that is going to continue, in my opinion, to be a force to reckon with. >> what does that mean for the next four years for america? what does that mean for the economy? >> that means that if the president comes and has his acceptance speech given the questions in ohio, maybe he will have an answer on how he's going to bring the two sides together. because where i come from, that's called leadership. it's taking people where they need to go, not necessarily where they voluntarily want to go, and i think that's the issue. >> -- because they're on tv. >> keith boykin joins us at the table, was set in part by mcconnell saying he wanted to deny obama a second term. that is no longer part of the calculous. so it is mcconnell's thinking change tonight. does that allow some common
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ground? >> obviously he has that -- he can't do that anymore. i think rick has got partly a point in that, yes, the conservatives should stick with their guns on whatever they want to stick with, but it's not going to be a long-term solution because the american people have said clearly tonight they want the president's policies in place. >> just because the people have said that doesn't mean that's going to get you to the promise land. because as larry has said, there's a division in this country, and the division is that we need a more proactive base. >> the provision was settled tonight with this election, rick. and what the american people said is they want barack obama to continue to be president of the united states. and, yes, they want -- >> so they want less job growth. >> no, that's not what they want. >> they want less capitalism. less entrepreneurialism. >> those are your words. tell that to the american people. >> no, that's pretty much the way it's been. >> i don't know that you can say the american people knowing the tight race this has been, i mean, you're talking about first of all the popular vote is still being -- no, no, no, the popular vote is still being won by romney by 1 million votes.
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the electoral vote, 274-203. very tight. so for you to say -- that sounds like it's a landslide. >> maria, in 2010 when rick was here and the republicans took control of the house and there was -- >> which they still -- >> or had the big win of the tea party, everybody said then, and this was a mandate from the american people, but you have far fewer people who voted in that election than you did in this election. and nobody is talking about, yes, there are far fewer people in a midterm election in a national presidential election. yes, the american people have spoken with one clear voice. they've had a year and a half to listen to both candidates and decided they like barack obama's course better than they like the other side. >> you can't be happy just having the house. i know you better than that. you want to govern. you're laying out a prescription to keep the house and nothing more. that's my point. >> the house stays the way it was, so the dynamics of 2010 stay in place, and if, in my opinion, 2008, i think the
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president was a different happy-go-lucky guy. okay? this election is a little different. but the people voted for him again. so at this point, if this is the direction the country wants to go, nobody can argue with it. do i think it's the right direction? do i think it's a capitalist direction which has served us well for 236 years? i have no reason to think it's going to be different for the next four years. >> look, you have a division, a clash of principles. okay? you just do. you have free market capitalism on one side. as symbolized by the house. you have a role, a larger role of government directing the economy on the other side. and mr. obama won. now, you're going to have to reconcile that in order to get anything done. >> we've got to go to ohio because, you know, here we are hearing that the romney campaign is contesting this. this win out of ohio. >> not conceding. >> not conceding, not conceding, pardon me. let's get to scott cohn, live, i
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want to get the flavor live on the ground in ohio. scott, what can you tell us? >> reporter: first of all when ohio is the state that put romney over the top as many suggested, you get the reaction from the very pro-obama crowd here. but let me take you through what the issue is with ohio and why, perhaps, the romney camp is not conceding it yet. the two candidates with the raw vote totals now, about 75% of the raw votes in, separated by about 30,000 votes. that's not enough when you start figuring in the provisional ballots. remember we talked about 200,000 provisional votes that -- provisional votes likely to be counted. they start count of that in ten days. here's the thing the obama camp may have going for it. the results that we're still waiting for are largely from the urban areas where obama was
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running strong. hyahoga county near the cleveland area, the cincinnati area. these are the areas where we would expect that as the returns come in president obama would run strong and perhaps overcome anything that romney could make up with the provisional ballots. other things, senses we were getting as the votes were coming in, in appalachia, romney not doing as well in 2012 as mccain did in 2008. so, again, it suggests there's a little bit of an edge that obama built in the state that was so tightly contested. but it is not a done deal yet, as we've said all along, there's an army of lawyers on both sides, and if this difference holds of under, say, 50,000 votes between them, those provisional ballots come into play, the legal situation, the legal challenges come into play, and he may not be done yet. guys? >> it's a good explainer. >> good explainer, but what's the timing on that? when do these votes get counted?
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is there any chance we could actually see a change in ohio? >> the provisional ballots don't get counted for ten days. >> right. >> but if, in fact, the county results, what the obama campaign was telling me, as scott cohn was saying, if those come in they're likely to outweigh the magnitude of a provisional ballot. >> it's a question that could be answered tonight. >> i think it will likely be answered tonight. the nbc elections unit thinks it will be answered tonight. that's why they called the race. >> i mean, you've got other -- look, florida, virginia, nevada. nevada's going to go for -- i mean -- >> you think it's over? you think it's done? >> i think it's over. and what i'm trying to say is there's a clash of principles in this country. a f very fierce clash. okay? i happen to be on the supply side of that clash. free market. look, can you find common ground? in other words, you can have leadership.
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doesn't mean you have to give up your principles. can you find common ground? and i think what john harwood said is a good point. it is true two summers ago that they were close. they were close. whether that's the promiseland remains to be seen. something has to give otherwise the economy is going to hell again and the country will go bankrupt. >> larry, there's a -- >> the country will go bankrupt? >> the country will go bankrupt. if we can't solve this stuff with entitlements and the debt ceiling, the country will go bankrupt. >> very large bipartisan group in the senate that is willing to come together. the question is, is the house ready to play that? >> let me bring in a couple new voices to the mix. we have catherine wild, president and ceo of the partnership for new york city. and deputy chair of the board of the new york fed. cathie, thanks for weighing in here. your reaction to these results tonight? >> well, we're looking forward to getting started on solving american problems. in the next few weeks. in the last week we've proven in new york there is no republican or democratic response to a hurricane. we've worked together to solve
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that crisis and as you pointed out with speaker after speaker tonight, the crisis facing america on january 1st is the disaster of the fiscal cliff that if we go over it as far as the business community is concerned, that is a permanent stain on america's role in the global economy. we got the notice last week from the g-20 when the heads of finance of the countries of the world stood up and said, america, if you go over this cliff you're going to send us into a double dip recession. we have to make sure we do something about this and we're glad the country can come together to solve a problem of flooding, of a hurricane. we can come together to solve the fiscal problems, too. >> yeah, it's amazing because you would think so. you would think that the two sides would come together on such an important issue. knowing that at the end of the year we're going to see, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars in spending cuts which will mean layoffs.
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you will see the largest tax increase for all income levels. i hope that we can actually see the beginning of the end to this fiscal cliff problem now that we have clarity in the white house. >> and with only 54 days to spare. that time is going to be tight. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us tonight as well, with some reaction to not just the results of the projected results tonight, michelle, but what it means for the next 2 1/2 months. >> i would just say the romney campaign maybe still feels comfortable saying they don't want to concede ohio because we still don't know florida. i've been sitting watching the results come in and florida is still incredibly -- if we finally got a decision there, that would be more -- that would lead to a far more decisive outcome. that's why we've still been sitting in this position and they can fight it. it's been sometimes within 1,000 votes within florida. it's been very, very close the whole night. you can see it there. so if we got some decision, that would help as well. one of the things we're waiting for. i have to tell you, having watched all the states minute by
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minute by minute, this is not definitive. this is a divided country, not one that has come together in any way when you look at all of the divided states. look how late it is and we still don't know how many states. it's because the country and the people are divided. >> carly fiorina, i know you're with us as well. i can't imagine you dispute that, the fact the country is divided. i wonder how far is this idea, a concession that is delayed, how far do you think that goes tonight? >> i really have no idea. i mean, it's all coming down to florida, virginia, and ohio. as we said many, many hours ago, but obviously so far this has not been a great night it would seem for governor romney and the republican party either in the senate or for the white house. i do think tomorrow there will be a requirement for whoever the victor is and it certainly looks at this juncture to be president obama, to really make an extra effort to reach out and to try
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and bind the country's wounds. because as many of you have pointed out, this has been an extremely hard-fought election. tensions and passions have run very high and we have really huge problems in front of us. i would also say that i think there are people, to larry kudlow's point, about a battle of ideas, i think there are a lot of people who believe this is a battle of ideas, but i want to also just add the possibility that for a lot of people it actually may be a contest of personalities, that it really comes down to the candidates. that's how, for example, i think you get an outcome like wisconsin, where you have a republican governor and, yet, a very early and decisive win for president obama tonight. in some cases, i think republicans lost the senate because of the candidate, not because of the ideas. >> carly, tonight about the superpac money and the spending
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of all this money by essentially big business and big businessmen for a romney victory? >> well, i think if you looked at the data, what you'd find is there has been big superpac money spent on both sides. and i think what's interesting, certainly there's been a lot of superpac money for romney. i think toward the end of the game there was a fair amount of superpac money for obama as well. but i think what's interesting is after all this money has been spent, arguably $1 billion on each side, much of it soft money, so-called, here we are at the status quo ante. we have, according to these projections, obama in the white house, a democratic majority in the senate, a republican majority in the house. >> $6 billion i think is the number that's been spent. to end up exactly where we were. imagine what we could have done with $6 billion? >> yeah. >> and yet -- >> oh, my. all right. let's bring in howard dean, former presidential candidate. good to see you, governor. thank you so much for joining
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us. your reaction to these results? >> thanks, you all. it's obviously for us, it's great. this is a lit the earlier than i thought we were going to get the call, but i'm happy. it was a great -- you know, the interesting thing about this business about delaying the acceptance in ohio is if we win colorado we don't need ohio. so i think this is pretty much over. >> is the president going to be able to bring the two sides together? we're here talking about what the next four years will look like with president obama continuing to be in the lead. why would anyone believe that we would actually see a break to this log jam between the two sides in the next four years? are we going to be able to get anything done? >> some interesting things, to be blunt about it, i'm one of the relatively small number of people in this town that thinks we ought to go with the fiscal cliff. we get two quarters of modest recession and have growth at the end of the year and in exchange make a huge down payment on the
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deficit. i think that would do more to free up business investment than any kind of deregulation. we really need to take, get serious control of the deficit. it hasn't been done. so that's the next -- i think the president's got the wind at his back on that. either the republicans make a deal and, or they don't, and if they don't, we probably do more to get rid of the deficit than we do if they do make a deal. >> do we see a wave of layoffs before we make a dent in the deficit then? >> i think that's overdone. will there be a recession? yes. the cbo says it will be modest for two quarters and get growth bit end of the year. as you know, you've been preaching it on these shows, we're going to have to take real pain to deal with the deficit and have to deal with the deficit in a serious way. the fiscal cliff does that. i don't have much faith in a bipartisan compromise. i think they'll take half the money that they need to and half of that will be funny money and accounting tricks. so now we just won a new term for the president. i think he wants to get serious about the deficit. hopefully we can make a deal with the republicans.
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if not, the fiscal cliff is the best of a bunch of bad alternatives. >> i've heard of daredevils but never that daredevil going over the fiscal cliff. that's a thelma and louise solution to our solution, governor. >> it's not a real cliff. >> we'll continue the discussion and impact on the fed, supreme court, entitlements and a lot more when your coverage of "your money your vote" continues in just a moment.
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welcome back to our coverage of "your money your vote" on election night 2012. let's go to eamon javers.
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>> the big call is in in the united states senate. nbc news is projecting the democrats will retain control of the chamber in the senate. the democrats have picked up two seats so far. that gives you as of right now 50 democrats, two independents, and 44 republicans. let me walk you through some of the call that we have at this hour starting with virginia. this was a monster race between two former virginia governors, tim kaine and george allen. nbc news projecting tim kaine is the winner, the democrat is the winner in the state of virginia. move on to hawaii, nbc news projecting ma decision e hirono, democrat in hawaii, is the projected winner there. in washington state, nbc news is projecting maria cantwell is the winner there. again, a democratic victory in the state of washington. in california, this one, obviously very expected. senator dianne feinstein, the projected winner here. a democrat in california. do we have new mexico as well to look at here this evening? new mexico, we're looking at
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another democratic projected winner. martin heinrich over heather wilson. also we have results here in arizona. taking a look at the results there. jeff flake, the republican, kind of a libertarian tinged republican in the state of arizona. he's the projected winner in that state. a lot of big calls tonight out of those 33 races that were on the ballot tonight in the united states senate. we're still waiting on four results, but a lot of these big calls are now in, carl. >> all right. thanks very much. let's bring in jared bernstein, sarah fagen, cathi yeah wylde, steve liesman, larry kudlow, and keith boykin. let's go over to you guys. jared, your thoughts? let's talk about when the work begins now now that we know barack obama is re-elected. >> look, i'm feeling pretty elated over here. i think i might be levitating a little bit. try to keep the camera on me. >> as long as your leg doesn't tingle, we're okay.
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>> i thought you guys had an interesting discussion and there's definitely divisiveness out there. i'm going to pretend it's a kumbaya country all of a sudden. but with this re-election, i really do think the two sides could come together and find ways to work this out. it does involve some new revenues in the deal. you heard me argon wiuing with r norquist. yesterday's gridlock has to be left with yesterday. i think with this victory the democrats maintaining the senate, i know it's a status quo, but often newly re-elected presidents or newly elected or reelected presidents, they get a break on these kind of deals so i'm looking for republicans to come to the table. >> the other thing, though, that has to occur is the president will start to think about his legacy. starting tomorrow. and what legacy does he want to leave the country? is he going to tackle the tough issue s like social security, medicare, or simply try to raise
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taxes on the rich, cut defense, do some moderate spending reductions and call it a day? and i think we'll learn a lot here through this lame duck session just about how much, how willing the president is going to be to give on these issues. >> let me get your take, jimmy. we're sure to see some kind of tax change. we're going to have tax reform probably meaning higher taxes for business, for the highest earners. we'll see health care legislation stay. we know that because romney wanted to repeal it. we will see some spending cuts in defense and, of course, the entitlements. what does business do? how does business, the corporate sector react? >> well, for a second, i can tell my friends in private equity, the carried interests, the tax break is probably going to have a very short life span. listen, i think we can get sort of a, not a grand bargain, a petite bargain involving some sort of probably, you know, again, bowles/simpson like fax
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reform. deep fundamental tax reform and also medicare reform, the president's campaign made that a lot more difficult. the republicans' big idea on that and what they would exchange tax increases for is governor romney's premium support, medicare reform plan. the president has made that radioactive. even though it has a lot of bipartisan support, even though it's originally a centrist plan, that is the key. that is the key to a grand bargain. and the president's campaign, unfortunately, has made that more difficult. >> we have a status quo election and i think unfortunately we're likely to see status quo policy. >> wait a second. it is true the electorate and by a narrow majority the electoral college did reject the idea of taking medicare and voucherizing it. i think that the guarantee fee for service medicare lives on. that's one of the -- that's one of the items --
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>> got a whole playpen over there all to yourselves. it's getting dangerous. i want to bring in john allison, president and ceo of the cato institute. thank you for being with us. >> yes, sir. >> i want to start off with some discussion of fed policy. it's likely the president in a second term is going to oversee a, is it to walk us through a volcker-esque recession to bring us back to normality on rates? >> if he had that kind of courage. the fed policy can't continue. talking about this earlier with a number of your investors. smart investors know that the policy's incredibly inflationary if we ever get any kind of economic growth. we've never had a fed balance sheet like we have today and nobody really knows how to undo it so it's a huge issue out there. it's secondary to fiscal policy in the short term but in the long term it could be more important because if the dollar crashes in value because people don't believe we can pay our
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debts back it's going to be a big effect on our economy. >> would you expect to see interest rates spiking quickly any time soon as a result of, you know, a change in attitude toward the debt of the u.s.? >> i don't think it's going to happen pretty soon. i think it's going to happen if over the next four years we don't exercise radically better fiscal discipline than we did. if you run the mathematics for the united states, if we continue the way we're going, in 15 or 20 years we do go bankrupt. that's not politics. that's just mathematics. and the question is, are we going to change direction? >> you know, i think it is going to happen over the obama presidency. there's going to have to be reversal. your questions are good as to whether or not president obama might be overseeing another recession that could be of news by the fed to normalize policy. it doesn't have to happen that way. the federal reserve does not believe it has to happen that way. they believe they can exit in a way that does not cause a recession. in a measured way. it's going to be a serious threat over the obama presidency.
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the normalization of interest rates, which has to come as john alilison was just saying with a plan to bring down the debt and deficit over that period of time. that gets back to maria's point. will there be compromise? to me, just to raise a controversial point, the compromise begins, in my opinion, with acknowledgement by the republican party of legitimacy of a democratic presidency. i have watched over a long time with the clinton presidency, and with the obama presidency, from day one it was oust the democratic president. and i don't think we're going to get where we need to go unless the republican party really acknowledges the legitimacy of a democratic president. >> we have to jump to a short break then we will be right back. president obama re-elected tonight of the united states. president. we will take a short break and we've got more coverage. stay with us. ♪
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